SPORTS BETTING ARTICLES

Arbitrage betting is the system of betting on “sure bets” or bets that will guarantee the bettor a profit whatever the outcome of a certain sporting event. Arbitrage betting exploits the fact that bookmakers may have different opinions, or at times have errors, in calculating the probability of a certain event happening. Usual profit of the people who use arbitrage betting (called arbers) is 2%.

For the this example, we will be using the 27-Nov-14 game of Cruziero MG vs Atletico Mineiro. We will be utilizing FT markets.

Previously, we have discussed how we can use equations and distributions in order to predict the odds of a game. However, in most cases the theoretical odds are not what always what is seen in actuality. In this article, we will discuss the theoretical odds movement and statistical influence of the in running game that makes the odds deviate from the expected odds movement.

In theory, if you gamble for a large period of time you will eventually lose all your money. Gambling is technically profitable if you are the one taking bets since you always have the edge thru profit margins. Besides, that is the reason thousands of people have jobs—because betting companies take money from punters and most of the time, keeps it.

Which will be better: betting on a 6/42 lotto (Php 10.00 per bet; P20,109,076.00 winnings) or betting on a 6/55 lotto (Php 20 per bet; P198, 652,121.00 winnings)? But here is the twist: in 6/42 lotto, you have thrice the original chance of winning while on the 6/55 lotto, you have twice the original chance of winning.

What would you choose? Choose one. We’ll answer it later.

In this article, we will discuss luck in terms of sports betting and in winning streaks. Some may be baffled when I say that luck plays an important role in sports betting. You may say, Hey! I thought when I train and practice very hard I will great in my sport! And you are saying that its about luck?! Are you nuts? Well, we’ll answer that later.

In this article, we will discuss how loss aversion impacts performance. We will see the fact that players perform better when they are losing.

The green lumber fallacy tells us that in solving a certain problem, sometimes we think that a certain knowledge is needed to solve it. Certain information and mastery about a certain subject is said to have a large bearing, although in fact it has little or none at all.

Confirmation bias talks about the inadequacy of the human mind to not be psychologically bias in decision making. We tend to subjectively decide on things instead of focusing only on the facts, and on this one, we fool ourselves that we are “objective” by choosing only the facts we want.

We begin by interpreting the Expected Value (EV) in betting to avoid confusion and misconception. EV is the amount of money that you will win or lose, on the average, when you bet on a certain result.

I remember a few years ago when I first encountered the equation for the Poisson Distribution in one of my classes. It was my Physics 151 class, statistical physics I. Heck, it was bloody!

Studies suggest that 97% of sports bettors lose money in the long term. So why would you still bet on it? There are lots of reasons why people bet but one of the most obvious reason is this: They want to beat the system. They want to win versus the system that due to a profit margin, tells us that mathematically, you will lose.