Green Lumber Fallacy

The green lumber fallacy tells us that in solving a certain problem, sometimes we think that a certain knowledge is needed to solve it. Certain information and mastery about a certain subject is said to have a large bearing, although in fact it has little or none at all.

Reading more about the green lumber fallacy, I became confident about my involvement in the sports betting industry. Personally, I am not really a follower of the NBA or any football leagues in the world. Before becoming part of the sports betting industry, I never had the chance to watch a live full football game, or heck, even played a full basketball game. Understanding risk is as important, if not more so, than knowledge of the sport itself.

Sports Betting and the Green Lumber Fallacy

The heart of sports betting is analyzing the risk involved in every bet made. Knowing the ins and outs of the trade is more important than that what you are trading. Of course, knowledge on both the sports and the sports betting is ideal. However, the largest chunk should always be about the risk analysis.

A soccer veteran may say several things about a certain game and analyze it in his perspective. However, he may not be qualified to be an exceptional soccer bettor if he does not understand the basic principles of risk analysis or does not have any experience in betting. He may say the individual chances of a person having a goal, or the several techniques created by a team, or may say a lot about the way a certain player handle a ball. Yes, he may have the knowledge about the sport, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that he has the knowledge about betting on the sport. You may spend an entire decade learning about a certain sport and the different techniques and history on it—you may scholarly learn it. But if you don’t apply it to something (i.e., for the improvement of the players or for sports betting) and gain knowledge and experience from it, your expertise will remain scholarly.

Potential Pitfalls

Trying to subjectively determine the outcome or the odds of an event is hazardous as it poses the bettor or even the bookmaker to the several psychological inadequacies of the human mind. As a bettor and as a bookmaker, we must be vigilant to the advises ‘experts’. As in any decision we are making, we should always think, and think again.