In theory, if you gamble for a large period of time you will eventually lose all your money. Gambling is technically profitable if you are the one taking bets since you always have the edge through profit margins. Besides, that is the reason thousands of people have jobs—because betting companies take money from punters and most of the time, keep it.
Does this mean that people should stop betting? There are many reasons why people bet. It may be for entertainment, personal fulfillment or just a way to support your favorite team. However, if you plan to bet for profit, you must know how you can beat the system—the system that tells us that betting companies win and bettors lose.
There are things that numbers can't represent; for everything else there's YOU.
The odds, calculations, goals, red cards, standings—these are all represented by numbers. A team's strength is determined by the average goals they make. A player making the first goal is a graded person. Red cards are represented by a drop in odds.
The system sees it as numbers. As a live person with an ability to see social and emotional impact between players, coaches and all other people involved in the sport you are betting on, you can take an edge. Since the computer can't make this prediction and incorporate this in the odds, you can take an edge on this.
However, one must be cautious in over-representing what has happened. A fight may happen increasing the “true odds” of having more goals. Or a rival team is so pissed off they would really want to score the next goal. Remember: always check if the price is right.
Getting it straight from the horse's mouth
A very interesting take on how rumors spread through social media accounts, especially on Twitter, is that it may affect the ‘true’ odds in a way. The first is that news can easily spread like wildfire. With the new innovations in the passing of information, we can easily know the latest happenings. This is good in a sense for bettors since they will know the dramas inside the game. However, with the speed of information, a secret may eventually be everybody's secret.
Aside from this, false information or rumors can spread easily, clouding the true odds of the game. Remember the news about Jackie Chan's death? Celine Dion? Morgan Freeman? Tom Hanks? Jim Carrey? Cher? Eminem? The list goes on and on. Lies can easily spread over the internet. Getting your facts straight from the horse's mouth will definitely save you money.
Pageants, Awards, Popes and more
Aside from sports betting, many companies offer novelty bets ranging from the sex of the new royal baby, to when Prince Harry will marry, to who will win the X Factor, to who the next Pope is. When I first saw these, I thought it was a joke but when I saw the odds and the site, I was completely in awe.
In 1994, the Metro Manila Film Fest had a huge controversy of results switching. Although a very stupid act (did Lolit Solis really think that she could get away with that?), this proves that with gossip and people who just can't keep their mouths shut, results can leak. There are insiders in these pageants, reality shows, award-giving bodies and even normal circumstances such as those who know the sex of the Royal baby. A simple leakage of the results of these events will create a huge impact on the odds—and can create huge amounts of money. If you (or someone you know) is in the circle, you definitely have an edge—just make sure it's really from the horse's mouth and not some nonsense hoax.
Be a Master
You can't be the master of all trades. Focus. You can focus on one league first since the more you master all the dynamics of play in different teams, or how weather affects the scoring, or how teams play with each other, the better your chances in predicting the game outcome. There will always be factors that a machine cannot take into account. Of course, the more popular the game is, the more people (and experts) are eyeing it, giving you a disadvantage. You may want to check the ‘lower’ leagues first.
Using techniques such as the calculation of the expected value must be mastered, aside from mastering the league itself. Here, you can check whether the price of the odds is really its worth. You can check if the odds given are a bargain or a completely useless sale.
Final thoughts
Sports betting is a complex subject matter. It is a combination of psychological and scientific areas that must be intertwined fully. How the market bets, how the players react and how to calculate the true odds require knowledge of both these areas. When one is left out, the other one becomes blind or deaf. If you want to get the edge, learn the science of bookmaking and sports—how to calculate the odds, the probability, the profit margins and all. Aside from this, also learn the social impacts of several events on the performance of the player and of that of the bettors. To get the edge you are looking for you must outwin, outplay and outlast the bookmaker.
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