Getting an Edge in Betting

In theory, if you gamble for a large period of time you will eventually lose all your money. Gambling is technically profitable if you are the one taking bets since you always have the edge thru profit margins. Besides, that is the reason thousands of people have jobs—because betting companies take money from punters and most of the time, keeps it.

Does this mean that people should stop betting? There are many reasons why people bet. It may be for entertainment, personal fulfillment or just a way to support your favorite team. However, if you plan to bet for profit, you must know how you can beat the system—the system that tells us that betting companies win and bettors lose.

There are things that numbers can’t represent, for everything else there’s YOU.

The odds, calculations, goals, red cards, standings—these are all represented by numbers. A team’s strength is determined by the average goal they make. A player making the first goal is a graded person. Red cards are represented by a drop in odds.

The system sees it as numbers. As a live person with an ability to see social and emotional impact between players, coaches and all other people involved in the sport you are betting, you can take an edge. Since the computer can’t make this prediction and incorporate this in the odds, you can take an edge on this.

However, one must be cautious in over-representing what has happened. A fight may happen increasing the “true odds” of having more goals. Or a rival team is so pissed of they would really would want to score the next goal. Remember: always check if the price is right.

Getting it straight from the horse’s mouth

A very interesting take on how rumors spread thru social media accounts especially on Twitter is seen in the article. It may affect the ‘true’ odds in a way. The first one is that the news can easily spread like wildfire. With the new innovations on passing of information, we can easily know the latest happenings. This is good in a sense for bettors since they will know the dramas inside the game. However, with the speed of information, a secret may be eventually be everybody’s secret.

Aside from this, false information or rumors can spread easily clouding the true odds of the game. Remember the news about Jackie Chan’s death? Celine Dion? Morgan Freeman? Tom Hanks? Jim Carrey? Cher? Eminem? The list goes on and on. Lies can easily spread over the internet. Getting your facts straight from the horse mouth will definitely save you money.

Pageants, Awards, Popes and more

Aside from sports betting, many companies offer novelty bets ranging from the sex of the new royal baby, to when will Prince Harry will marry, to who will win the Xfactor, to who the next Pope is. When I first saw these, I thought it was a joke but when I saw the odds and the site, I was completely at awe.

Yes. Even the marriage of Prince Harry is being bet upon. More at willimanhill.com.

In 1994, the Metro Manila Film Fest had a huge controversy of results switching. Although a very stupid act (did Lolit Solis really think that she can get way from that?), this proves that with gossips and people who just can’t keep their mouth shut can leak results. There are insiders in these pageants, reality shows, award winning bodies and even normal circumstances such as those who know the sex of the Royal baby. A simple leakage of the results of these events will create a huge impact on the odds—and can create huge amounts of money. If you (or someone you know) is in circle, you definitely have an edge—just make sure its really from the horse’s mouth and not some non-sense hoax.

Be a Master

You can’t be the Master of all trades. Focus. You can focus on one League first since the more you master all the dynamics of play in different teams, or how weather effects the scoring, or how teams play with each other, the better your chances in predicting the game outcome. There will always be factors that a machine cannot take into account. Of course, the more popular the game is, the more people (and experts) are eye-ing it, giving you a disadvantage. You may want to check the ‘lower’ Leagues first.

Using techniques such as the calculation of the expected value must be mastered, aside from mastering the League itself. Here, you can check whether the price of the odds is really its worth. You can check if the odds given is a bargain or a completely useless sale.

Final thoughts

Sports betting is a complex subject matter. It is a combination of psychological and scientific areas that must be intertwined fully. How the market bets, how the players react and how to calculate the true odds require the knowledge on both these areas. When one is left, the other one becomes blind or deaf. If you want to get the edge, learn the science of bookmaking and sports—how to calculate the odds, the probability, the profit margins and all. Aside from this, also learn the social impacts of several events in the performance of the player and of that of the bettors. To get the edge you are looking for you must outwin, outplay and outlast the bookmaker.